Press Coverage of Kasich

Following the most recent GOP Debate Governor Kasich’s campaign has gone through quite the coverage in amongst the media. The same media that has given an incredibly popular Ohio Governor little attention all of a sudden has taken offense after he calls for a level of sincerity to the GOP Primary. In Milwaukee Governor Kasich said he had finally had enough of the ridiculous statements and policy positions of his fellow Republicans an did nothing to tow the party line. I’ll evaluate two perspectives that reflect the media’s coverage on Governor Kasich’s campaign in this past week and reflect on how he was impacted in real world terms from there.

Coverage from the Right

Breitbart News can be described as a lot of things, however there is little need to parse words in saying they likely aren’t left of anyone when comparing news organizations. On Friday November 13 they posted an article calling for the end of moderate, establishment GOP candidates in Governor Jeb Bush and Governor Kasich. The imagery when first reading the article is immediate and stark.

^[1]

Hurt rallied against the Governors’ stances on immigration claiming a level of credibility by stating the American public is frustrated when it comes to illegal immigration^[1]. However with no back up he goes onto say that the candidates should be deported just like their amnesty policy. Siding with Senator Ted Cruz by saying that the Governors’ position is not compassionate despite their claims is the most backing when it comes to the article.

Coverage from the Left

New York Magazine's Gabriel Sherman reaction to the debate was much different compared to Hurt's calling for the end of the campaign. While it had the air of a post-mortem - describing Kasich as looking tired, not being recognized in his best polling state outside of Ohio, and his parts of his campaign strategy resembling an "anachronism from a more hopeful moment in the GOP’s history"[2]. Sherman describes the potential that the Kasich campaign offers with rhetoric promoting bipartisan action over the party line, but points to a few key issues that simply make him appear to be just like the candidate his Chief Strategist John Weaver worked for in 2012 - Jon Huntsman. In relation to last Tuesday's Fox Business debate Sherman focuses on how the image of the campaign is more of the petulant child, than the presidential candidate he is - the one who has the best resume.

Lessons

In the end all of the political rhetoric on Kasich's campaign can be instructive of how it is being perceived and talked about - simply look to Jeb Bush as an example for how that can plummet a campaign. Zignal Labs however gives more of a evidence-based look to how the debate was perceived by voters.

Most instructive of their research was that the low-polling Kasich campaign may have done exactly what they wanted despite the media narrative voters were interested in who Kasich is. Search engine statistics highlight Kasich as having by far the biggest moments in the debate and winning out[3].

[3]

Other research done by the data analytics firm compared the ever controversial Kasich and Trump in order to analyze who was most being discussed during the debate. Kasich ended up winning by a 10-point margin against the pop-culture star of the GOP Primary[3]. While this doesn't prescribe what is going on in the discussion about Kasich or Trump, for such a 'low-polling' candidate to be talked about is a strong move in the right direction. Gaining knowledge of the candidate amongst voters will go a long way to strengthening the campaign. 

[3]

1. Hurt, Charles. "It's Time to Deport Jeb Bush and John Kasich." Breitbart News, 13 Nov. 2015. http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/13/bnthe-nuclear-option-its-time-to-deport-jeb-bush-and-john-kasich/

2. Sherman, Gabriel. "And John Kasich Is the Angry One?" Daily Intelligencer. New York Magazine, 13 Nov. 2015. http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/11/john-kasich-is-the-angry-one.html#

3. Hughes, Gabrielle. "This Week in Realtime Media (#TWIRM): November 13, 2015." Zignal Labs, 13 Nov. 2015. http://zignallabs.com/this-week-in-realtime-media-twirm-november-13-2015/

Kasich in Pop Culture

Recently Saturday Night Live announced that they would be having Donald Trump on to host their show. Just a few weeks before Hillary Clinton made a guest appearance on the same show for a skit featuring an impersonator talking with her. When Stephen Colbert first premiered his show the media obsession with Trump’s campaign was a central point of how his late night show wasn’t just another political pundit, but also served as a criticism of the entire establishment. So in what way can we evaluate popular culture melding into politics and how does this have real campaign impacts? 

 [1]

Trump on SNL

[2]

Trump being on the famous weekly sketch-based comedy TV Show is important for evaluating the impact popular culture can have on the rest of the process for a few important reasons. The FCC has long had rules in place that allows opposing candidates to take advantage of these instances of popular culture meshing with political communication through their ‘Equal opportunities’ right. This measure was put in place to avoid the perception of the media unfairly taking sides in political races and allows candidates to have free air time equal to that of the original candidate’s^[2]. This is particularly important as it would allow Kasich who just registered for New Hampshire’s GOP Primary earlier today to take advantage and gain free air time on New Hampshire televisions^[3]. For more information on the details visit Politifact’s cited article, but the important factor is that the Kasich campaign has shown an ability to boost their ratings in this region with television ads previously will be getting more free air time.

Kasich in Pop Culture

So how is Kasich perceived in popular culture? Generally he is still struggling with the same issue he has been in debates and national polling – low recognition. Tonight John Kasich will be appearing on the Late Show with Stephen Colbert and will attempt to buck this trend that is evident in his continued low polling percentages. Previously Governor Kasich appeared on an interview segment with Seth Meyers on Late Night with Seth Meyers*. This interview is probably the biggest non-debate audience Governor Kasich has been able to reach easily and will be most indicative of popular culture’s reaction to his campaign and the image he attempts to project during this time.

Late Night with Seth Meyers

Governor John Kasich on Trying to Be Reasonable at the GOP Debate - Late Night with Seth Meyers^[4]

Takeaways

After watching this interview it becomes ever clear that Governor’s Kasich is perceived generally the same across types of communication. Meyers asked questions surrounding Kasich’s low polling numbers, why Kasich was different than in 2000, what separates Kasich from the pack, and Kasich’s strategy during the debates. This does just what Kasich is looking for allowing him to spout on and on about his upbringing, values, and motivations for declaring a candidacy for president. Kasich deflects the question about polling, uses his upbringing as a way to identify with the audience, and his values to separate himself from the pack and clarify his strategy during the debates. Only time will tell if this traditional way of addressing his campaign faces will lead to long-term success, but he appears to be doing an effective job right now.

Citations and Annotations

1.  Gajewski, Ryan. Kate McKinnon and Hillary Clinton in a still from Saturday's 'SNL' premiere. Digital image. The Hollywood Reporter, 3 Oct. 2015. http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/snl-premiere-hillary-clinton-cameos-829287

2. Sanders, Katie. "PolitiFact Sheet: Does Donald Trump's 'SNL' Appearance Trigger Equal Time for the Republican Field?" Politifact. Tampa Bay Times, 21 Oct. 2015. http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/article/2015/oct/21/does-donald-trumps-snl-appearance-trigger-equal-ti/

*This article highlights that interviews do not count towards the equal opportunity clause and would not be considered a right for other candidates to appear on these same networks Governor Kasich does.

3.  "John Kasich Files for the New Hampshire GOP Primary Ballot." Video blog post. Kasich For America, 6 Nov. 2015. https://johnkasich.com/blog-posts/john-kasich-files-for-the-new-hampshire-gop-primary-ballot/

4. Kasich, John, Gov. "Governor John Kasich on Trying to Be Reasonable at the GOP Debate - Late Night with Seth Meyers." Interview by Seth Meyers. Youtube. Late Night with Seth Meyers, 22 Sept. 2015. Web. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VIaGf5OD8uA

John Kasich - Advertising The Candidate

In the last post on John Kasich’s campaign polling data was used to establish how Kasich’s strength as a candidate is at the moment. Unfortunately since that blog post of ours here at Bucking The Trend there haven’t been many positives seen by those in the news media with journalists describing Kasich as just barely having made the cut for next week’s CNBC Republican Debate – with more to do with rounding than his current polling^[1]. Additionally Kasich’s early rise in New Hampshire has come back down to earth after a strong August month^{[2 P. 1, 3 P. 17]} leading the campaign to make another Ad Blitz^[4] in hopes of stabilizing claims of the campaign ‘sputtering’. In the view of these articles and the possible impact of his upcoming Advertising campaign in New Hampshire evaluating Kasich’s advertising strategy can illustrate the rest of Kasich’s campaign.

Attacking Hillary

After Joe Biden’s announcement that he would not be running for President in 2016 this has led many to assume that Hillary Clinton will be the eventual nominee^{[5, 6]}. While this is good for Democrats, it will simply lead Republicans to focus their efforts on attacking Hillary and attempting to associate her with President Obama – so long as his polling stays low. We’ve seen this with John Kasich as he utilized her statements during the most recent Democratic Debate to make political hay with some of his advertisements. According to polling data he is well served to do so with Republican voters having a favorable image of her at only 14% and independents only viewing her strongly favorably at 11%^{[7, P. 10]}. With this in mind let’s look at some of Kasich’s Hillary-focused attack advertisements.

“Kasich For America – ‘Disgrace’ ”

This first advertisement establishes (Kern, 1989) a problem-solution format with a frustrated view of partisanship displayed by Hillary and relieved image that Kasich can offer. Strong and sound it offers an identification of a strong trait by Governor Kasich that balances effectively with a negative view of a strongly negative viewed character amongst his target audience.

“Joe Biden & John Kasich Agree”

This builds on the previous advertisement by allowing a visible member of her own party attacking Hillary as backing to Kasich’s touting of his bipartisan nature and positive image. While invoking Joe Biden as a credible source amongst Republicans may be tenuous it reinforces the idea of Hillary as an ineffective leader that John Kasich will be a better alternative than.

Strength of Candidate

Establishing the strength of Kasich’s candidacy can be important for this as it is allows a potential voter the ability to trust that John Kasich will be standing on the stage at the Republican National Convention this year. That will allow Kasich to take advantage and gain momentum as a candidate with volunteers, voters, and donors.

“What has Hillary Clinton's Advisors Concerned?”

Now that Hillary has established herself as the likely Democratic Nominee finding a candidate that will beat her is very important. This advertisement pokes straight at that desire for a Hillary alternative amongst voters. A notion that scares Hillary as evidenced by her favorability ratings discussed earlier, but also as Republicans viewing her as a potential victor in the General Election. A strong 59% of Republicans and 57% of Independents can see her in office in 2016, so presenting Kasich as someone that could beat her could be very effective^{[7, p. 22]}.

“John Kasich's For Us - Momentum”

Kasich builds on his metaphor of a candidate “who can land the plane” used during the CNN Debate with this advertisement. Furthermore it establishes what things he has done to establish himself as a qualified Presidential Candidate. As campaign managers and media consultants know that reinforcing your message is important in order to get the public on board. Using a very visible event such as a Presidential Debate will only strengthen that objective.

Balancing Budget

The final advertising strategy we’ll be evaluating is how Kasich separates himself from the field on an issue basis. As the majority of Kasich’s statements on his qualifications center around the idea of him having balanced the federal budget and in Ohio that’s where we’ll focus.

“John Kasich - Balancing the Budget”

The imagery given in the opening scene of this advertisement is strong in that it helps to establish why Kasich should be picked out of the crowd. It goes onto establish Kasich’s qualifications as a candidate when it comes to balancing the budget as a legislator and an emotional person. Overlaying the idea of an issue advertisement with an emotional attachment is why this could be seen as a strong advertisement. It poses Kasich as a leader and legislator balancing that with the image of an empathetic candidate with a strong vision to the future.

“John Kasich For Us - "Walk" - Kasich Balanced the Federal Budget”

This advertisement does well to establish how monumental it was for John Kasich to have balanced the budget during his time in the House of Representatives. This is effective two-fold for it first establishes how rare it was for someone to make the efforts he had and second to establish the economic environment it can help to create. While the second point mentioned is more tenuous in its relationship in reality it helps to promote a positive image of how John Kasich can lead the national economy.

Unfortunately this focus by Governor Kasich may be why he isn’t polling very well nationally. YouGov polling data recently did an in-depth poll into what issues voters perceive as being important. The budget deficit is considered as a very important issue for 69% of Republicans and 83% of Independents view it as either very or somewhat important^{[7, p. 135]}. However only 8% of Republicans and 5% of Independents view it as the most important issue our country faces^{[7, P. 143]}. For Kasich changing the mind of more voters that the deficit is the most important issue is unlikely to happen. In order create movement in his polling results he’ll likely have to make a stronger argument of how the deficit affects our economy which is viewed as the most important by 19% of Republicans and Independents alike^{[7, P. 143]}. Another strategy will likely surround a combination of blaming Obama’s handling of the deficit and associating Hillary Clinton to Obama on this as 87% of Republicans view the President’s handling of this unfavorably with only 27% of Independents viewing it favorably^{[7, P. 157]}.

These considerations are all important for considering how Kasich’s campaign stand amongst others with the recent coverage being as negative as it has become. Flipping the script will be important as free media is an essential quality for a mid-low tier candidate. Unfortunately for Kasich his record may have put him in the upper echelon in a normal election, but with as many candidates as there currently are everything does appear far from normal.

Sources

1. Margaret Hartmann, New York Magazine, October 22, 2015 “Christie, Kasich, and Paul Just Barely Qualify for the CNBC Debate”, http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/10/christie-kasich-paul-barely-make-cnbc-debate.html#

2. Public Policy Polling, October 20, 2015, “Clinton Reclaims The Lead In New Hampshire; Trump Still Up Big”, http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_102015.pdf

3. Hart Research Associates, Sponsored by NBC News and Wall Street Journal, Data Range: October 15-18, 2015, Study #15462, http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/NBCWSJOct2015PollFinal.pdf

4. Kathleen Ronayne, Associated Press, October 23, 2015, “Super PAC behind Kasich plans ground blitz in New Hampshire”, https://politics.concordmonitor.com/2015/10/politics-election/super-pac-behind-kasich-plans-ground-blitz-in-new-hampshire/

5. David Horsey, LA Times, October 23, 2015, “Joe Biden bows out: A plus for Hillary Clinton; a minus for the USA”, http://www.latimes.com/opinion/topoftheticket/la-na-tt-biden-bows-out-20151022-story.html

6. Jennifer Epstein and Margaret Talev, Bloomberg, October 21, 2015, “What Joe Biden's Exit Means for Hillary Clinton”, http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-21/what-joe-biden-s-exit-means-for-hillary-clinton

7. YouGov Poll, sponsored by The Economist, data range: October 8-12, 2015, https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/oxhxk3fmq5/econTabReport.pdf