In the last post on John Kasich’s
campaign polling data was used to establish how Kasich’s strength as a
candidate is at the moment. Unfortunately since that blog post of ours here at
Bucking The Trend there haven’t been many positives seen by those in the news
media with journalists describing Kasich as just barely having made the cut for
next week’s CNBC Republican Debate – with more to do with rounding than his
current polling[1]. Additionally Kasich’s early rise in New
Hampshire has come back down to earth after a strong August month[2 P. 1,
3 P. 17] leading the campaign to make another Ad Blitz[4] in
hopes of stabilizing claims of the campaign ‘sputtering’. In the view of these
articles and the possible impact of his upcoming Advertising campaign in New
Hampshire evaluating Kasich’s advertising strategy can illustrate the rest of
Kasich’s campaign.
Attacking
Hillary
After Joe Biden’s announcement
that he would not be running for President in 2016 this has led many to assume
that Hillary Clinton will be the eventual nominee[5, 6]. While this
is good for Democrats, it will simply lead Republicans to focus their efforts
on attacking Hillary and attempting to associate her with President Obama – so long
as his polling stays low. We’ve seen this with John Kasich as he utilized her
statements during the most recent Democratic Debate to make political hay with
some of his advertisements. According to polling data he is well served to do
so with Republican voters having a favorable image of her at only 14% and
independents only viewing her strongly favorably at 11%[7, P. 10]. With
this in mind let’s look at some of Kasich’s Hillary-focused attack
advertisements.
“Kasich For America – ‘Disgrace’ ”
This first advertisement
establishes (Kern, 1989) a problem-solution format with a frustrated view of
partisanship displayed by Hillary and relieved image that Kasich can offer.
Strong and sound it offers an identification of a strong trait by Governor
Kasich that balances effectively with a negative view of a strongly negative
viewed character amongst his target audience.
“Joe Biden & John Kasich
Agree”
This builds on the previous
advertisement by allowing a visible member of her own party attacking Hillary
as backing to Kasich’s touting of his bipartisan nature and positive image.
While invoking Joe Biden as a credible source amongst Republicans may be
tenuous it reinforces the idea of Hillary as an ineffective leader that John
Kasich will be a better alternative than.
Strength
of Candidate
Establishing the strength of
Kasich’s candidacy can be important for this as it is allows a potential voter
the ability to trust that John Kasich will be standing on the stage at the
Republican National Convention this year. That will allow Kasich to take
advantage and gain momentum as a candidate with volunteers, voters, and donors.
“What has Hillary Clinton's
Advisors Concerned?”
Now that Hillary has established
herself as the likely Democratic Nominee finding a candidate that will beat her
is very important. This advertisement pokes straight at that desire for a
Hillary alternative amongst voters. A notion that scares Hillary as evidenced
by her favorability ratings discussed earlier, but also as Republicans viewing
her as a potential victor in the General Election. A strong 59% of Republicans
and 57% of Independents can see her in office in 2016, so presenting Kasich as
someone that could beat her could be very effective[7, p. 22].
“John Kasich's For Us - Momentum”
Kasich builds on his metaphor of
a candidate “who can land the plane” used during the CNN Debate with this
advertisement. Furthermore it establishes what things he has done to establish
himself as a qualified Presidential Candidate. As campaign managers and media
consultants know that reinforcing your message is important in order to get the
public on board. Using a very visible event such as a Presidential Debate will
only strengthen that objective.
Balancing
Budget
The final advertising strategy we’ll
be evaluating is how Kasich separates himself from the field on an issue basis.
As the majority of Kasich’s statements on his qualifications center around the
idea of him having balanced the federal budget and in Ohio that’s where we’ll
focus.
“John Kasich - Balancing the
Budget”
The imagery given in the opening scene of this
advertisement is strong in that it helps to establish why Kasich should be
picked out of the crowd. It goes onto establish Kasich’s qualifications as a
candidate when it comes to balancing the budget as a legislator and an
emotional person. Overlaying the idea of an issue advertisement with an
emotional attachment is why this could be seen as a strong advertisement. It
poses Kasich as a leader and legislator balancing that with the image of an
empathetic candidate with a strong vision to the future.
“John Kasich For Us -
"Walk" - Kasich Balanced the Federal Budget”
This advertisement does well to
establish how monumental it was for John Kasich to have balanced the budget
during his time in the House of Representatives. This is effective two-fold for
it first establishes how rare it was for someone to make the efforts he had and
second to establish the economic environment it can help to create. While the
second point mentioned is more tenuous in its relationship in reality it helps
to promote a positive image of how John Kasich can lead the national economy.
Unfortunately this focus by Governor Kasich may be
why he isn’t polling very well nationally. YouGov polling data recently did an
in-depth poll into what issues voters perceive as being important. The budget
deficit is considered as a very important issue for 69% of Republicans and 83%
of Independents view it as either very or somewhat important[7, p. 135].
However only 8% of Republicans and 5% of Independents view it as the most
important issue our country faces[7, P. 143]. For Kasich changing the
mind of more voters that the deficit is the most important issue is unlikely to
happen. In order create movement in his polling results he’ll likely have to
make a stronger argument of how the deficit affects our economy which is viewed
as the most important by 19% of Republicans and Independents alike[7, P.
143]. Another strategy will likely surround a combination of blaming
Obama’s handling of the deficit and associating Hillary Clinton to Obama on
this as 87% of Republicans view the President’s handling of this unfavorably
with only 27% of Independents viewing it favorably[7, P. 157].
These considerations are all important for
considering how Kasich’s campaign stand amongst others with the recent coverage
being as negative as it has become. Flipping the script will be important as
free media is an essential quality for a mid-low tier candidate. Unfortunately
for Kasich his record may have put him in the upper echelon in a normal
election, but with as many candidates as there currently are everything does
appear far from normal.
Sources
1. Margaret Hartmann, New York Magazine, October 22,
2015 “Christie, Kasich, and Paul Just Barely Qualify for the CNBC Debate”, http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/10/christie-kasich-paul-barely-make-cnbc-debate.html#
2. Public Policy Polling, October 20, 2015, “Clinton
Reclaims The Lead In New Hampshire; Trump Still Up Big”, http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NH_102015.pdf
3. Hart Research Associates, Sponsored by NBC News
and Wall Street Journal, Data Range: October 15-18, 2015, Study #15462, http://www.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/NBCWSJOct2015PollFinal.pdf
4. Kathleen Ronayne, Associated Press, October 23,
2015, “Super PAC behind Kasich plans ground blitz in New Hampshire”, https://politics.concordmonitor.com/2015/10/politics-election/super-pac-behind-kasich-plans-ground-blitz-in-new-hampshire/
5. David Horsey, LA Times, October 23, 2015, “Joe
Biden bows out: A plus for Hillary Clinton; a minus for the USA”, http://www.latimes.com/opinion/topoftheticket/la-na-tt-biden-bows-out-20151022-story.html
6. Jennifer Epstein and Margaret Talev, Bloomberg,
October 21, 2015, “What Joe Biden's Exit Means for Hillary Clinton”, http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-21/what-joe-biden-s-exit-means-for-hillary-clinton
7. YouGov Poll,
sponsored by The Economist, data
range: October 8-12, 2015, https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/oxhxk3fmq5/econTabReport.pdf
