Media
Presence
The
past week election headlines have been dominated by speculation over the
importance of the third quarter deadline and whose in fundraising numbers will
look the best. In an effort to avoid the media feedback loops that can be
created in a 24/7 news cycle let’s take a different path. With two debates and
2 withdrawals under our belt there has been enough time to parse out who is
performing well in debates and why that is. Unfortunately for our favorite
candidate from Ohio the results haven’t been very good.
Following
both debates there seemed to be mixed messages coming from the media about John
Kasich’s effectiveness. One of the premier data analysis groups,
Fivethirtyeight, has been following the debates and covering them quite
extensively from a performance and polling perspective. For Kasich the results
are pretty gloomy.
Following
the first debate he appeared to be unaffected in the polls despite gaining some
headlines with his comments on same-sex marriage [1]. The second
debate? Not much better, he was unable to gain any steam and was seen as taking
a very slight hit amongst polls[2]. There could be a lot of reasons
for this, but his lack of interaction with candidates could point to a large
portion of it. Following the second debate an analysis of times spoken and attacks
made throughout the debate highlight a very poor outing for Kasich.
So
let’s look back to that first debate. What did he do right and what could he
have done better? When could Kasich’s comments have hurt him and why did his
big bump with the crowd not result in a bump in the polls? Click the link below
to find the replay of the entire debate.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4406746003001/watch-a-replay-of-fox-news-prime-time-presidential-debate/?#sp=show-clips
Kasich
is asked three main questions throughout the debate a question about expanding
Medicaid in Ohio to achieve better outcomes at mark 20:00. He talks about economic
growth at mark 53:30. He talks about same-sex marriage at mark 1:20:10. We’ll
focus on the very last one which created the biggest bump amongst the Quicken
Loans Arena on same-sex marriage.
Compassionate
Conservatism
First
of all Kasich doesn’t seem to know where he’s looking throughout the statement,
its as if he’s making it up as he goes. Secondly he doesn’t the address
question head on leading to confusion about what might be saying and ultimately
forcing moderator Megyn Kelly’s hand in pressing him. This leads to a surprise
and unprepared audience to not realize the gravity of what he follows that up
with – compassion and love. He invokes God in this same question of religion
and tries to project a vision of a strong and unified America. Unfortunately
for Kasich this is punctuated with dramatic and distracting hand movements. If
we were recommending Kasich do anything before the debate it would to find
three logical points in the crowd to focus on, don’t pull a Ricky Bobby with
your hands, and be direct. An audience less likely to focus on your message if
they become bored and distracted. Personally, I love his message of hope,
respect, and compassion and this was one of the first times I realized that
John Kasich, that boy from Ohio was going places.
In
the end we won’t know what impact these recommendations could’ve had on Kasich’s
campaign, but we do know one thing. If you’re running for president. Never go
full Ricky Bobby.
1.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-post-debate-losers-walker-and-winners-fiorina/
2.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/was-the-second-republican-debate-the-beginning-of-the-end-for-donald-trump/
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