Polling in the Media

Over the past month and a half here at Bucking The Trend we’ve been covering John Kasich and the Republican Presidential Primary and focused on the long term viability of a candidate who seems to be on the lower rung of most people’s political radars. Giving light to these types of candidates is essential in order to see a real discussion on the state of the party and the upcoming election. In the last past the focus was on a quantitative analysis of Kasich’s performance during the two Republican debates. For whatever reason his campaign has generally been steady as she goes despite the dropping out of two early favorites, Walker and Perry, the ebbs and flows of other politicians, Bush and Rubio most recently, and the rise of the outsider candidate with Trump, Carson, and Fiorina leading the pack right now.

All of this storytelling is surrounded by a certain point of emphasis that has gained a vast amount of attention in media lately – polling. It seems that despite being 4 months out mass media is more focused on polling results than anything else for determining the strength of a candidate. Some of the more thoughtful media sources such as 538 have focused on a more holistic approach through a more contextual look at the horserace. 538 has utilized a combination of analysis and studies to inform readers on their takes with a focus on endorsements, favorability ratings, campaign funds, and evaluation of articles written on a candidate as an attempt to project future shifts in polls and thus better determine a candidate’s strength.

For whatever reason mainstream media has focused more about a candidate’s current polling position as much more of a signal of their strength than any other explanatory factors. Undoubtedly the fact is though that this early in a heated race a candidate can lose if their donors and strongest supporters lose faith in their candidacy and mainstream media does play an important part. Take the slow drip of bad stories Hillary has been facing with a combo of Benghazi and email security from her time as Secretary of State. Bush and Trump have experienced opposite effects in their campaigns from media coverage when it comes to their supporters. So how does Kasich into all of this?

Unfortunately the Public Policy Polling group has a generally negative, albeit slightly uninformed group, opinion amongst republican voters with 29% favorable, 35% unfavorable, and 35% undecided. This sample of 627 republican voters does have some possible error, but is a general note as to why voters aren’t flocking towards the Ohioans campaign. The most encouraging points that those interested in the long-term viability of a Kasich candidacy can still point to a few things from their results. First is that the party may eventually swing to a notion of a stronger candidate in the general election over a conservative hard R Republican with a +6% rate with 29% undecided in the former category with a -21% difference and 39% undecided category in the latter. As we get closet to actual votes being cast people are more likely to look towards a viable candidate than a bleeding conservative.

Secondly are the sizeable group of republican voters that have Kasich as their #2. Of comparable candidates that have seen a recent surge 23% of Rubio supporters like Kasich, 20% of Fiorina supporters like him, 11% from Christie, and 6% from Carson. If these candidates end up declining there is reason to believe Kasich’s camp would have a large amount to gain amongst establishment types. Additionally these voters might grow tired of these candidates and look more heavily to their #2.

Finally is something very interesting and of particular notice. Kasich’s favorability ratings actually jump very high amongst those who consider themselves somewhat to very conservative compared to liberal and moderates. Kasich has been called many pundits as a generally moderate candidate and while he is fairly even amongst conservatives being able to capitalize on this and expand a positive view amongst undecided voters will be very important for his candidacy’s future.

-http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NationalGOP_100615.pdf